Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 17.402877 19.848659 22.479862 25.516768 28.920903 32.614518 36.921157
2025-02-09 13.720329 17.024979 20.851350 25.592125 31.289779 37.897660 46.121170
2025-02-16 11.552486 15.142965 19.502392 25.153609 32.250663 40.830330 51.945757
2025-02-23 10.133572 13.946289 18.773879 25.285092 33.780389 44.424203 58.696074
2025-03-02 9.105434 13.074201 18.285331 25.557564 35.359948 48.019064 65.491495
2025-03-09 8.189639 12.230519 17.717194 25.616918 36.585581 51.144292 71.768509
2025-03-16 7.324539 11.351599 16.994399 25.359339 37.297925 53.549574 77.128723
2025-03-23 6.733883 10.798258 16.660075 25.583747 38.641283 56.825706 83.780826
2025-03-30 6.378465 10.552475 16.732857 26.371026 40.794859 61.297162 92.276405
2025-04-06 5.804343 9.912663 16.160334 26.143490 41.425129 63.595791 97.742118
2025-04-13 5.054786 8.923115 14.971094 24.881179 40.407438 63.409490 99.532741
2025-04-20 4.798121 8.709403 14.968353 25.441690 42.170265 67.386667 107.628357
2025-04-27 4.564141 8.521359 15.003860 26.082107 44.121415 71.786461 116.644529
2025-05-04 4.194752 8.067708 14.570197 25.930062 44.803197 74.269320 122.841036
2025-05-11 3.826724 7.579845 14.036253 25.562744 45.093260 76.122656 128.097134
2025-05-18 3.575644 7.279816 13.797766 25.670016 46.154729 79.226238 135.439903
2025-05-25 3.375698 7.055635 13.671989 25.955220 47.515737 82.853953 143.753972
2025-06-01 3.158660 6.778557 13.428979 26.012350 48.479564 85.859230 151.160462
2025-06-08 2.916260 6.429240 13.026552 25.752200 48.868012 87.910450 157.054801
2025-06-15 2.759726 6.236784 12.899482 25.979401 50.114007 91.438110 165.533793
2025-06-22 2.686019 6.207060 13.077061 26.777815 52.413498 96.844130 177.387963
2025-06-29 2.494424 5.913165 12.722438 26.547057 52.826950 99.003139 183.751536
2025-07-06 2.203034 5.377709 11.851886 25.267071 51.231357 97.567545 183.804723